The housing affordability crisis in Portugal has generated extensive debate in recent months. Legislative changes are expected shortly with the new government tax package aimed at addressing this issue by increasing the supply of housing, which will be reassessed in 2029. All of this brings instability to the sector, in a context of record house price increases and rising mortgage costs. Perhaps for this reason, confidence levels in both the sales and rental markets among real estate professionals are increasingly low, having even reached multi-year lows at the beginning of 2026.
The Real Estate Sector Sensitivity Index (ISSI) — produced by idealista based on a survey of real estate agents — shows how confidence among these professionals has been declining in recent years in both markets, reaching new lows in 2026:
Home sales market: expectations among professionals in this market have been falling since the start of 2025, with confidence levels reaching 72.1 points at the beginning of 2026 on a scale from 0 to 100. This is the lowest ISSI value for sales since the summer of 2024;
Rental market: optimism levels — which have always been lower than in sales — have followed a downward trend since the end of 2024. They fell so sharply that they reached the lowest confidence level at the beginning of 2026 (54.2 points) since rental ISSI data has been available.
These figures therefore indicate that real estate agents are less optimistic about both home sales and rentals at the beginning of 2026 than they were in the recent past. The reality is that the context has also changed. House prices for sale are now at much higher levels after recording record increases throughout 2025. In addition, the cost of new mortgage loans also tends to rise due to Euribor movements and pricing adjustments by banks.
On the other hand, developers, property owners and builders are now waiting for the Government’s housing tax package to be approved — it has already passed the first parliamentary vote and is currently under detailed review. This is because, if approved, the document will introduce a set of tax benefits designed to help bring more homes to the market, such as reducing VAT to 6% on construction and lowering income tax to 10% on all rental contracts with moderate prices (that is, up to €2,300).
Real Estate Sector Sensitivity Index (ISSI)
Scale from 0 to 100
1Q2024
2Q2024
3Q2024
4Q2024
1Q2025
2Q2025
3Q2025
4Q2025
1Q2026
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
ISSI Sales 4Q2024: 72.8
ISSI Sales 4Q2024: 72.8
ISSI Sales: 72.1
ISSI Rentals: 54.2
Analysis of real estate agent confidence and projections for the sales and rental markets
Source: idealista
Created with Datawrapper
Home sales rising — but prices stabilising at the start of 2026
Despite the high house prices — particularly in major cities — most real estate professionals surveyed by idealista continue to believe that they will sell more homes at the beginning of 2026 (67.3%). After all, government support for young people buying their first home (IMT exemption and public guarantees) is here to stay. And although mortgage credit is becoming more expensive, banks remain willing to grant loans and households are still able to cope with mortgage repayments.
Even so, around one fifth of respondents expect home sales transactions to remain stable, and nearly 12% believe they will transact fewer homes by March 2026.
Half of real estate agents even admit that house prices will remain at current levels during the first three months of 2026, which would be good news for those looking to buy a home. Still, four out of ten professionals believe there could be further price increases at the start of this year. Only around 7% expect prices to fall during this period.
This more widespread expectation of stable house prices may be linked to supply levels. Around 65% of professionals believe they will list more homes for sale at the beginning of 2026, which translates into an increase in available stock. Meanwhile, one in four professionals says that listing levels in the sales market will remain unchanged.
Home sales: how the market will evolve at the start of 2026
Expectations of real estate agents for the 1st quarter of 2026
Will rise
Will remain the same
Will fall
Don’t know / no answer
39.5% | 50.0% | 6.9%
House prices
67.3% | 21.0% | 11.7%
Home sales
64.9% | 25.4% | 8.9%
Listings
Source: idealista
Created with Datawrapper
Real estate points to stabilisation of rental prices
The sentiment in the residential rental market is one of moderate optimism, with around three in ten professionals believing they will rent more homes and a similar proportion expecting rental activity to remain stable at the beginning of 2026.
More than half of experts even expect rents to stabilise by March. The market is already showing signs of this: in December 2025, rental prices increased by just 0.9% compared to the same period of the previous year, according to the idealista price index. Fewer than a quarter of respondents believe there may be further rent increases.
As with rental contracts, there is a clear difference in perspectives regarding listings in this market at the start of the year. While fewer than one third of real estate agents say they will have more homes available to rent, around 30% say levels will remain the same and 22.6% admit they will list fewer homes.
Renting homes: how the market will evolve at the start of 2026
Expectations of real estate agents for the 1st quarter of 2026
Will rise
Will remain the same
Will fall
Don’t know / no answer
23.0% | 56.0% | 13.7% | 7.3%
House rents
30.6% | 31.5% | 23.0% | 14.9%
Rentals
32.3% | 29.4% | 22.6% | 15.7%
Listings
Source: idealista
Created with Datawrapper
Survey on real estate sector sensitivity
idealista calculates the Real Estate Sector Sensitivity Index (ISSI) based on the views of real estate professionals in Portugal who participate in a quarterly survey. This national index shows the level of satisfaction and forecasts for the real estate sector in the home sales market as well as in the residential rental market. The ISSI scale ranges from 0 to 100, where zero corresponds to widespread dissatisfaction and 100 corresponds to the highest possible level of satisfaction.
If you work in a real estate agency and would like to participate in the panel of experts surveyed to produce the Real Estate Sector Sensitivity Index (ISSI), contact your idealista account manager so you can take part in the next quarterly survey.